The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower

Michael Pillsbury’s The Hundred-Year Marathon is that rare book which manages to be both revelatory and depressingly obvious: revelatory in how clearly it lays out China’s long-term strategy for global dominance, and depressingly obvious in how American diplomats, politicians, bureaucrats, and policy analysts managed to miss it all while patting themselves on the back for their “engagement.” Pillsbury politely calls it hubris. I call it willful blindness wrapped in smug self-assurance. The book lays bare how, for decades, successive U.S. administrations convinced themselves that China’s rise would be “peaceful” and that a little free trade would turn Beijing into a Jeffersonian democracy with dumplings. Instead, Pillsbury shows how China, patient and calculating, marched steadily toward its long game of displacing American power while the West lectured itself into paralysis. Meanwhile, the U.S. military has at least tried to keep pace, throwing money, technology, and doctrine at the problem. But Pillsbury makes the uncomfortable point that military effort alone may not matter much if the other levers of national power, namely diplomatic, informational, and economic, continue their tradition of self-inflicted sabotage. The failures in the Middle East over the past decades should have been evidence enough that the U.S. diplomatic and bureaucratic policy community needs a significant paradigm-shifting re-calibration. A Pentagon full of hypersonic weapons will not mean much if Foggy Bottom, Wall Street, and think-tank row keep rolling out the red carpet for their own undoing. The sobering takeaway? Should China launch violent expansion in the near future, it may not be the U.S. military that fails first. It may be the diplomats still penning their “win-win partnership” white papers, the economists still high on quarterly earnings, and the analysts still stuck in Cold War nostalgia. Pillsbury does not just suggest the clock is ticking; he shows that it has been ticking for decades while the United States was too busy congratulating itself on being “indispensable.” In short, The Hundred-Year Marathon is equal parts diagnosis, warning, and slap in the face. America’s real marathon, it turns out, is not about competing with China, it is about seeing past its own arrogance long enough to realize the race has already started.

deep points, china agenda and reality is well noted by author. cannot get enough, reading slowly to absorb.

Worth reading to understand what elite American policymakers think of China and how views have changed. That’s the extent to which this book is useful. The author has the seal of a convert, deriding China for seeking to become a global hegemon, cultivating friends in other countries, undercutting those deemed unsympathetic, suppressing dissent, seeking to develop military supremacy and trying to burnish its own global image. Remarkably, the author seems completely unaware of how the US itself rose to power, and how its role during WW2 and the end of the colonial era could be read in similar ways. The author also repeatedly claims the US is free of propaganda, suppression of dissent and a beacon of goodwill to the world. This is, of course, laughable, but then one realizes he is being completely serious. This realization alone is worth buying the book. Pillsbury has drunk so much of his own koolaid that he believes the war on terror was a just and good thing, American military supremacy should be applauded by the rest of the world, and ascribes many virtues to capitalism that it does not possess in practice. If other elite policymakers are anything like Mr. Pillsbury, they too believe these fairytales, and that explains why they are so sure of themselves when starting wars and destroying millions of lives. The real value of this book is as a warning. If these fools ever push to go to war with China (or whoever else they see as competition), they should be opposed by any means necessary.

Very good read very scary if it is true would recommend to all Americans

In some ways this book is as fantastical as “The Travels of Marco Polo.” It’s a disturbing account of the Chinese Communist Party’s obsession with displacing the Unites States as the world’s leading economic and political power by 2049, the 100th anniversary of Mao Zedong’s China takeover. According to the author, becoming the world’s number-one power is China’s dream, and the goal of “The Hundred-Year Marathon.” Only China’s dream could become America's nightmare, because of the way China is going about it, which is through deception on a tall order: stealing technology rather than creating it themselves, embracing mercantilism rather than free trade and a free-market economy, demonizing America in Chinese school books, and poisoning their own environment and that of their neighbors with dangerously high levels of toxic pollutants. In a world where image is everything, China is carefully crafting an image of friendliness and cooperation; as being something of a victim of centuries of abuse by outside nations (Western Europe, Japan, the U.S.), and in need of a helping hand with modernization and of becoming a viable world economy and friendly U.S. ally. China wants America to give-and-give-and-give, while offering nothing of substance in return. Reading this book I couldn’t help thinking of Muhammad Ali’s rope-a-dope technique to beat a younger and stronger boxer (George Foreman). That seems to be China’s plan for overtaking the U.S.—to rope-a-dope America into complacency. By the time Washington’s leaders have figured out what China’s doing it will be too late; they will have achieved their ultimate of goal of becoming the world’s leading power. And, irony of ironies, we will have helped them do it. Sound far-fetched? Michael Pillsbury makes a compelling case. He knows his subject well, having been a China observer since the 1960s, an advisor to presidents Richard Nixon to Barrack Obama, as well as serving in senior positions for the Defense Department, working in conjunction with the CIA, and being a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Pillsbury’s book comes at a time when China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping has been perhaps too candid, admitting he regrets the fall of the Soviet Union, his disdain for an independent Chinese judiciary, free speech, individuality, and human rights. He sees the Chinese people as grass that will bend in whatever direction he should expel his breath. Indeed, the thread that runs throughout Pillsbury book is fear: fear of the West, fear of China becoming democratic, fear of criticism, fear of being deceived, and most of all fear of China’s one-power rule being deposed. Indeed, one gets the feeling that the Chinese Communist Party leaders are jealous, selfish, petty, churlish, and childish. They are not about to release their grip on absolute power and have been cracking down since Xi Jinping took power in 2013. According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal (“The Coming Chinese Crackup” — March 7, 2015), the endgame of communist rule has begun, and Xi’s campaign against dissent and corruption is only bringing the country closer to a breaking point. I suggest reading the last chapter first (chapter 11—America as a Warring State) then proceed to the Introduction and go from there. The last chapter contains the author’s step-by-step advice on how to deal with China in an effective and constructive way while insuring America’s place as the world’s leading power. A better title for the chapter would have been, “Fighting Back.” It’s the good news in a book that’s filled with relentless pessimism, which at times I found a bit much. Having said that, the book is strong medicine that’s foul-tasting but necessary to keep the patient—us—in robust health and out in front, as a paradigm of democracy and fair-dealing. Five stars.

A very excellent book!

Highly interesting, especially if you already did some reading on China‘s strategy and future development. Very different but well researched views in this book. The 1-star review here on Amazon (book shows racism, comparable to Elders of Zion Protocols) actually seems to prove the point of propaganda warfare and a West too ignorant and self-centred to understand long term thinking with a distinctly different world view. You might also be interested in https://www.amazon.de/Unrestricted-Warfare-Chinas-Destroy-America/dp/1549510525/ref=pd_sim_14_3/260-9809775-6445846?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=1549510525&pd_rd_r=f3c4d86f-0df9-4d1c-ab75-efc3a537a2c5&pd_rd_w=F0mI2&pd_rd_wg=M9c3D&pf_rd_p=b0773d2f-6335-4e3d-8bed-091e22ee3de4&pf_rd_r=90EBYFBQVARWQJY4XXTH&psc=1&refRID=90EBYFBQVARWQJY4XXTH

El libro Llegó antes de lo previsto y en excelentes condiciones

NixonからObama大統領までの歴代大統領の対中戦略立案に関与した上級スタッフが面白い本を公開した。著者はMichael Pillsburyで、中国語（Mandarin）を読み書き・会話できる第一級の中国専門家である。著者は毛沢東とNixonの米中国交正常化以降、約40年間騙され続けた経験をもとに、中国国家100年の計を中国の古典（The Thirty-Six Stratagems:三十六計、他）と対比させながら要約したものだ。 漢字文化のない米国人が中国の古典(原書)を解読、英語版との違いを発見することは至難の作業であろう。中国亡命者（穏健派）や諜報活動を通じて得た情報も多くある。中華人民共和国の建国100年である2049年、中国が米国に替わる世界の超大国になるのか？ ■Introductionの要点（５項目）を見ると中身が想像できるであろう。米国の期待的思考が悉く裏切られたことが良く理解できる。瞞天過海の謀略とは 成る程と納得できる。 1．Engagement brings complete cooperation（婚約発表） 2．China is on the road to democracy 3．China, the fragile flower（今にも枯れる） 4．China wants to be-and is- just like us（憧れは米国） 5．China's hawks（鷹派） are weak 確かに、米国は騙され続けてきた。1950年の朝鮮戦争では参戦しないと確約した人民解放軍が参戦、米軍約30千人以上が戦 死した。1970年代の毛沢東－Nixon交渉、1989年天安門事件、1999年の中国大使館誤爆事件では米国はヒットラー以上の悪魔と攻撃された。 ■見出しと背景にある中国戦略の格言 Introduction: Wishful Thinking（期待的思考） Deceive the heavens to cross the ocean－The 36 Stratagems →瞞天過海（敵に繰り返し行動を見せつけて見慣れさせておき、油断を誘って攻撃する） 1. The China Dream(中国の大望) There cannot be two suns in the sky, nor two emperors on the earth.－ Confucius 天に二日なし、地に二帝なし 2. Warring States（中国の戦国時代） It is too soon to ask the weight of the Emperor’s cauldrons.－Spring and Autumn Annals 3. Only China Could Go to Nixon Ally with Wu(呉) in the east to oppose Wei（蜀） in the north－The Romance of the Three Kingdom(三国志演義), AD 200 Quoted in Memo to Chairman Mao,1969 →呉＝米国、蜀＝ソ連を暗示（毛沢東がNixonを招聘） 4. Mr. White and Ms. Green(亡命者の仮名) Loot a burning houses－The 36 Stratagems →趁火打劫（敵の被害や混乱に乗じて行動し、利益を得る） 5. America, the Great Satan Make something from nothing－The 36 Stratagems →無中生有 （偽装工作をわざと露見させ、相手が油断した所を攻撃する） 6. China’s Message Police Deck the tree with false blossoms- The 36 Stratagems →樹上開花（小兵力を大兵力に見せかけて敵を欺く） 7. The Assassin’s Mace Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt－ Sun Tzu, The Art of War（孫子の兵法） →不動如山。難知如陰。動如雷震。 8. The Capitalist Charade（キャピタリスト偽装） Take the opportunity to pilfer a goat－The 36 Stratagems →順手牽羊（敵の統制の隙を突き、悟られないように細かく損害を与える） 9. A World Order in 2049 The Guest becomes the owner－The 36 Stratagems →反客為主( 一旦敵の配下に従属しておき、内から乗っ取りをかける) 10. Warning Shots Better to see once than to hear a hundred times－Chinese folk proverb →(百聞不如一見) 11. America as a Warring State Steal(Remove) the firewood from under the cauldron－The 36 Stratagems →釜底抽薪（敵軍の兵站や大義名分を壊して、敵の活動を抑制し、あわよくば自壊させる）

Ce livre est un éclairage extraordinaire sur le développement de la Chine. Quiconque en a été témoin oculaire durant les 30 dernières années ne peut que se demander comment la Chine en est arrivé là. Ce livre donne la réponse et éclaire le présent et le future. Il n'aborde pas, et c'est dommage, les gesticulations de la Corée du Nord qui n'est qu'une marionnette cachant la main de Pékin.